How shifting geopolitics could shape the fate of 6 Brazilians detained in Argentina

The fall of Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, which until recently dominated the Brazilian right, could determine the fate of six of the country’s citizens arrested in Argentina. Brazilian Bolsonaro supporters who were convicted in Brazil for participating in the January 2023 storming of government buildings and fled to Argentina are facing extradition. And they feel doubly betrayed by their leader’s allies — both by Argentine and U.S. presidents Javier Milei and Donald Trump. The case of Rodrigo de Freitas Moro Ramalho, a 36-year-old app delivery rider from São Paulo, shows how things have shifted. He was detained by Federal Police inside Brazil’s government house on January 8, 2023. He had entered with hundreds of people who stormed state facilities and vandalized them, protesting the newly-inaugurated President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva. Like many Bolsonaro supporters, he was convicted of trying “to abolish the democratic rule of law and overthrow the legitimately constituted government.” But in early 2024, he broke his ankle monitor and fled to Argentina in search of a safe haven — after all, Javier Milei was an ally of Bolsonaro. Initially, it seemed like a solid bet. In 2024, 181 Brazilians applied for political asylum in Argentina through the National Refugee Commission (CONARE). They organized protests demanding amnesty for themselves and Bolsonaro.  Moro Ramalho even felt confident enough to bring his wife, Viviane Freitas, and the couple’s two children to Argentina three months later. But in late 2024, things began to fall apart. He was arrested in La Plata while attempting to renew his Argentine immigration documents. “It was very sad, with everyone staring, and it was as if he was a criminal, someone who had actually committed a crime,” Viviane told the Herald. “We [she and the kids] have brittle bone disease — they break easily. Rodrigo was the family’s guardian and provider.” In November 2024, Federal Judge Daniel Rafecas requested the arrest of 61 Brazilians in the same situation. The police ultimately arrested six. In a hearing on December 3, Rafecas ordered that five of them be extradited to Brazil, including Moro Ramalho. His wife, wearing a T-shirt that read “Freedom to the Brazilian political prisoners,” was present with their children. “We were betrayed [by Milei],” she told the Herald outside the court in Buenos Aires. Their last resort to avoid extradition is an appeal to the Supreme Court. Once the extradition has been ruled on, the decision lies with the executive branch — in other words, with Milei. A shifting of the political tide The CONARE could grant the Bolsonaristas political asylum. However, a source at Brazil’s Foreign Ministry told the Herald it was unlikely, since Argentina’s trade relationship with Brazil means it’s unlikely to see much benefit in becoming a “haven for Bolsonarista fugitives.”  The diplomat argued that by detaining just six of 61 fugitives, the Milei administration is trying to appease its leading trading partner, while also saving face with Bolsonarismo. Rodrigo Tripolone, Moro’s lawyer, somewhat agrees. “I suppose that, despite their ideological differences, these leaders have to stick to the political reality of their countries,” he said. The lawyer holds Bolsonaro responsible for the January 2023 attempted coup against Da Silva. In September, the former leader was sentenced to 27 years in prison. His clients, however, were “common citizens” who were “in the wrong place at the wrong time,” he said. This week, the five Brazilians whose extradition was ordered were granted house arrest, if they surrender their passports and get an ankle monitor. They are also forbidden from leaving the country, and Interpol and the National Directorate of Migration are on alert. The Brazilian fugitives and detainees in Argentina are not only seething at Milei. With Bolsonaro jailed and Brazil’s far right facing a leadership vacuum, Lula has found himself empowered and rebuilding his relationship with Donald Trump after a rocky start.  In July, after imposing house arrest for Bolsonaro during the trial on the coup attempt, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes was added to a financial sanctions list established by the U.S. government. The measure was adopted after pressure on the White House from Jair Bolsonaro’s allies, mainly his son Eduardo. However, in December, after Trump and Lula met and eased their tariff war, the U.S. administration lifted the sanctions. De Moraes not only convicted Bolsonaro — he was the acting judge overseeing the Bolsonaristas who fled to Argentina. Several social media accounts belonging to Bolsonarista fugitives called Trump a “traitor.” “Bolsonarismo has been damaged by the political reconciliation between Lula and Trump,” said Juan Manuel Karg, a political scientist and international relations commentator. Bolsonaro does not yet seem to have found a suitable electoral replacement, he added. Although the election is still a long way off, Karg said, Lula leads ahead of several right-wing candidates, like Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flavio, the former president’s wife Michelle, and São Paulo governor Tarcisio de Freitas.