Inflation in April dips to 2.6%, first drop in 11 months

Inflation in Argentina dipped to 2.6% in April, according to a report released Thursday by statistics agency INDEC. The figure represented a decline compared to March’s 3.4%, marking the first time in eleven months that the inflation rate has slowed.  It is also the lowest figure in the last five months, surpassed only by the 2.5% recorded in November 2025. Core inflation stood at 2.3%, a significant slowdown from the previous month’s 3.2% and the lowest figure since October of last year. Prices rose 32.4% year-over-year.  “Returning to normalcy. Despite coup attempts by politicians [and their partners in the ‘red circle’] and the external shock, inflation is back on a downward trajectory,” President Javier Milei wrote on his official X account. RETORNANDO A LA NORMALIDAD.A pesar de los intentos golpistas de la política (y sus socios del círculo rojo) y el shock externo, la inflación retoma el sendero decreciente.VLLC! https://t.co/xJCkdMZJdu— Javier Milei (@JMilei) May 14, 2026 Economy Minister Luis Caputo also celebrated the news. “Excluding 2020, which was heavily influenced by the temporary increase in money demand during the pandemic, the rise in the overall level was the smallest for the month of April in the entire historical series, which begins in 2017,” he wrote on X. IMPORTANTE 3👇La inflación de abril fue de 2,6%, la mas baja en 5 meses.✅ El IPC Nacional registró una variación mensual de 2,6% en abril, desagregada en una suba de 2,3% en el IPC Núcleo, 4,7% en la categoría Regulados y 0% en Estacionales✅ La variación en el nivel general…— totocaputo (@LuisCaputoAR) May 14, 2026 The economic sector with the highest monthly increase was transportation, with a 4.4% rise, driven by higher fuel prices. The second-largest increase was in education, at 4.2%. According to brokerage firm Balanz, the inflation figure was driven primarily by regulated components, which rose 4.7% month-over-month. Seasonal prices remained unchanged. Brokerage firm Puente, on the other hand, noted that the figure was recorded despite “a challenging environment due to the conflict in Iran and its impact on energy prices.” Expectations moving forward Cumulative inflation in the first four months of 2026 stood at 12.3%. This is a significant deviation from the 10.1% inflation target the government had projected in the approved 2026 budget.   Economist Christian Buteler told the Herald that, while the data was in line with market expectations, the challenge moving forward is to break the inflationary inertia. He explained that one of the factors behind this phenomenon, for example, is utility rates that are adjusted based on past inflation, which acts as a brake when monthly inflation falls below 2%.  “You might not notice it as much when you bring inflation from 6 or 7% down to 2 or 3%, but when you have to go from there to 0%, inflationary inertia caused by adjusting rates based on past inflation ends up acting as a barrier,” he explained.  According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (in Spanish, REM) conducted by the Argentine Central Bank, May inflation is estimated to hover around 2.3%, a figure projected to decline to 1.8% by October.