President Javier Milei will spearhead La Libertad Avanza’s (LLA) rally in Rosario on Thursday evening to close the campaign ahead of Sunday’s midterms. The event will wrap a tumultuous campaign for the government, marked by economic turbulence and several political scandals that have dampened the ruling party’s expectations for the election.
Near the park where Milei’s event will take place, protestors will carry out a march against the national government under the slogan “Milei, persona non grata.” Similar marches and protests have been carried out during Milei’s visits to other cities during the campaign, especially in Buenos Aires province.
A key election and dampened expectations The October 26 race is a pivotal election for Milei given it will renew half of the Lower House and a third of the Senate. Due to its brief history, LLA will almost certainly gain legislative representation, although the final number is expected to be lower than what government authorities were aiming for.
The ruling party’s campaign took a devastating hit when José Luis Espert, who was the top candidate in Buenos Aires province, resigned after being accused of narco ties. Espert acknowledged he received at least US$200,000 from Fred Machado, an Argentine businessman who is being investigated for drug trafficking in the United States and has been extradited there for trial.
The Espert scandal was a hard blow to an already beaten up LLA. In August, the government when Presidency Secretary Karina Milei — the president’s sister — and other high-ranking public officials were accused of leading a bribery scheme in the national disability agency.
The libertarians currently have 37 seats out of 257 in the Lower House, and 6 in the Senate. LLA will likely be among the first two most voted fronts at a national level and, for this election, has allied with right-wing party PRO to compete as a coalition, which will make its lawmaker count go up.
Best-case scenario projections by Parlamentario, an outlet that focuses on Congress news, show that there could be around 77 deputies and 18 libertarian senators in Congress starting in December. Despite these gains, they will still need to negotiate with other blocs as Peronism is likely to remain the largest coalition.
Recent polls show mixed results at the national level, with some showing a LLA win and others giving the edge to Peronism.
Milei has said he will announce a government reshuffle after the elections. On Wednesday, government sources confirmed Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein will leave his post. Pablo Quirno, who currently serves as finance secretary, will replace him. One day later, it was Justice Minister Mariano Cúneo Libarona who announced he is also leaving.
Three other members of the cabinet are already expected to leave to take lawmaker seats. Security Minister Patricia Bullrich and Defense Minister Luis Petri are running for senator and deputy, respectively. Presidential Spokesman Manuel Adorni is also set to become a lawmaker for Buenos Aires city after coming first in May’s local elections.
