IMF cuts Argentinas 2026 growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced Tuesday a significant cut to its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina, lowering it from the 3.5% projected in its April report to 2.1%. 

The new projection puts Argentina below the regional (2.3%) and global (3.1%) averages, while the institution also raised the countrys unemployment forecast from 7.2% to 7.6%.

The new figures were published in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report presented during the IMF’s and World Bank’s annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, which began on Monday.

Argentinas economy Minister Luis Caputo will attend the event on Tuesday, along with Vice Minister Jos Luis Daza and Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) President Santiago Bausili.

The report also lowered Argentinas growth forecast for 2027, from 4% to 3.5%, although this remains comfortably above the BCRA’s own Market Expectations Survey (REM), which projects growth of 1.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027.

The IMF expects the recovery to continue at a significantly slower pace than in 2025, with gradual improvements in key macroeconomic imbalances. 

It projects lower inflation, an improvement in the external sector with the current account moving into surplus and relatively stable unemployment.

The findings echo the World Bank’s announcement last week in its biannual Regional Economic Update. The institution cut its growth projections for Argentina from 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027 to 2.1% and 3%, respectively.

Energy-backed improvements

According to the report, the energy sector will be one of the key drivers of Argentina’s economy.

The IMF estimates oil prices will average US$96 per barrel this year, a 40% increase over 2025. Despite a drop to US$87 expected next year, prices remain high by historical standards.

With natural gas prices also above pre-Iran crisis levels, the hydrocarbon sector stands to benefit from the new international environment. This could further boost the appeal of energy projects such as the Vaca Muerta shale formation, Argentinas biggest oil and gas field.

However, higher fertilizer and energy costs will also increase expenses for productive sectors, putting additional pressure on certain industrial and agricultural supply chains, the report said.

Global debt’s impact

The IMF warns that international financial conditions currently pose one of the main challenges, as global public debt continues to rise and sovereign bond yields remain at multi-decade highs.

For Argentina, this means access to financing will remain dependent on a less favorable international environment than the one that prevailed for much of the past decade.

The region’s relatively weak growth outlook is another obstacle. The IMF projects that Latin America will grow by just 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, well below Asia.

Brazil, Argentina’s main trading partner, is expected to see growth slow from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027. The slowdown reflects monetary conditions that remain restrictive as policymakers seek to bring inflation back to target, the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, and global uncertainty.

With information from mbito