Argentinas economy hits new all-time high in March, with broad-based growth

Economic activity rose sharply in March to a new all-time high, with growth of 3.5% from the previous month and 5.5% year-on-year, led by strong performances in agriculture, industry and mining. It was the biggest monthly increase since Javier Milei took office, according to statistics institute INDEC’s Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE). After the jump, March activity stood 6.6% above the level of November 2023 just before Milei’s election victory and at its highest point since at least 2004. Ivn Cachanosky, chief economist at the right-wing think tank Fundacin Libertad y Progreso, said “the March EMAE confirmed what was expected, and the economy bounced back strongly.” He explained that February “was the bottom of the cycle,” because the first two months of the year are structurally tricky months “summer holidays, lower industrial output, and in this case a general strike and two fewer business days.” In March, manufacturing grew 4.6% year-on-year and commerce 2.2%, adding to the momentum already coming from energy, up 5.7%, mining, up 16.3%, and construction, which rebounded 7.6%. “What stands out about the data isn’t just the headline number but the composition,” Cachanosky said, noting that 14 of the 15 sectors grew year-on-year. Public administration and defense were the only ones to contract, down 1.2%. “That’s a sharp departure from the pattern of previous months, when the economy was showing a marked split mining and agriculture surging while industry and commerce slumped,” he said. Dissenting voices Not everyone shares the optimism. Hernn Herrera, head of economics at the center-left think tank Instituto Argentina Grande (IAG), told the Herald that the strong March 2026 number compared with the same month of 2025 owes mostly to a weak base of comparison. “For both activity and industry, March 2025 was a very difficult month. Almost every sector was stalled, because they were waiting to see what would happen with the exchange-rate regime, which was overhauled in April,” he said. He also stressed the lingering hit to industry, noting that in the first quarter of 2026 the sector was 10.5% below the first quarter of 2023 before Milei’s adjustment began. Herrera added that some categories within the EMAE “are working against the economy as a whole.” For example, he said, “when subsidies are cut or real interest rates rise, that isn’t helping aggregate demand or output.” The road ahead Cachanosky argued that “the unevenness we’ve been seeing shouldn’t be read as an anomaly, but as the expected outcome of an economy that is reshaping its production base after 60 years of protectionism.” There is no consensus on what comes next. The Fundacin Libertad y Progreso economist expects that “with inflation easing and no election noise this year, demand for pesos will normalize and consumption which had gone quiet because of the electoral uncertainty in September and October last year will start to pick up.” Herrera, on the other hand, didn’t rule out a slowdown. He ruled out any short-term recovery except in mining and oil. “In fact, we may well see more trouble,” he said. “That’s where there’s something genuine happening,” he added, referring to those sectors.