El Mencho has fallen but the cartel still stands

Every action carries a reaction. And the capture and death of Nemesio Oseguera El Mencho Cervantes, the leader of Mexico’s largest drug trafficking operation, is not the exception to the rule.  Following the military operation in Tapalpa, southern Jalisco, that led to his capture, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG, in Spanish) unleashed a series of actions that left over twenty municipalities, including Guadalajara’s metropolitan area, ablaze. Puerto Vallarta, a popular tourist destination for foreigners, looked like a war zone. Columns of smoke lifting from torched cars and trucks used to block freeways and avenues could be seen rising behind the hotels. Within a matter of hours, the blocked streets and attacks on banks, convenience stores, and pharmacies spread to the neighboring states of Guanajuato, Michoacán, Colima, and Nayarit.  The alert became national when similar actions began in places that are seemingly far but where the CJNG is active: Morelos, Hidalgo, Tamaulipas, Baja California, Oaxaca, the State of Mexico, and Puebla. The government’s security cabinet officially listed 252 roadblocks between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. in 20 different localities.  The majority (65) were in Jalisco, while the rest were in Aguascalientes, Baja California, Chiapas, Colima, State of Mexico, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Michoacán, Nayarit, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Puebla, Quintana Roo, Sinaloa, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Zacatecas. The far-reaching limits of the cartel’s influence The impressive map of roadblocks is a showing of the reach of Mexico’s most powerful and dangerous cartel, a criminal enterprise that has absorbed other outfits and filled its ranks with hitmen, former police and military, as well as young people recruited by force.  Its crimes have left a trail of horror, highlighted by a string of high-profile hits. Among them are the shooting down of airplanes from the Mexican Air Force or attacks like the one carried out in June 2020 against then Mexico City Police Chief Omar García Harfuch, currently national secretary of security and civilian protection.  To all this we must add the thousands of people murdered and disappeared, as well as the hundreds of towns condemned to live under their oppression. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of mayors under their influence governing municipalities of all sizes. Their tentacles reach politicians and businessmen, crisscrossing borders along a global criminal network. The CJNG did on Sunday what is in their nature: expanding territory, inflicting collective panic, paralyzing the civilian population, and threatening authorities with unleashing endless violence. In social media and social polarization, criminals discovered the ideal levers to expand panic and anxiety.  Images of people running through the airports of Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta that went viral on social media will go down in the annals of disinformation history as clear examples of how fast and efficiently a lie reposted thousands of times eventually becomes post-truth.  In addition to the death of El Mencho and another seven cartel members, the army initially reported that three officers were severely injured in the operation. The secretary of security and civilian protection later announced that the national guard and the armed forces lost 25 and 6 members, respectively.  The final balance includes blocked roads in 20 places and a 12-hour country-wide terror siege. The fighting inflicted casualties on all sides, but there is one piece of information that stands out: so far, there has been only one civilian death.  These occurrences, which military authorities at the beginning of the war on drug cartels during the Felipe Calderón administration called “collateral damage,” were now reduced to a minimum.  This is not a small thing. President Claudia Sheinbaum and the army have inflicted organized crime the harshest blow in its history. Twenty years after former President Felipe Calderón started this war, the consequences of this hit on a society that still refuses to normalize violence have been limited mainly to material losses and psychological torment. After the irresponsible war led by Calderón and former President Enrique Peña Nieto, as well as Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s failed efforts to stop the violence, Sheinbaum and Harfuch managed to capture and kill the most powerful criminal leader, earning praise from the United States and even some parties in the opposition.  They have won an important battle, but the war is far from over.  The days to come will be critical. El Mencho is dead, but it would be very naive to think the cartel is over. History tells us that the reshuffling of leaders and factions that is about to take place could unleash even more violence. That will be the true litmus test.