The EU-CELAC summit comes amid geopolitical unrest. Heres what to expect

Leaders from across Latin America, the Caribbean, and the European Union are traveling to Colombia for the EU-CELAC summit. The event will take place in the coastal city of Santa Marta on Sunday and Monday. The summit seeks to strengthen inter-regional co-operation between two blocs that see themselves as bastions of peace, free trade, and shared values.  However, the meeting comes at a tough geopolitical moment, and a number of leaders from both sides of the Atlantic do not plan to attend, which could lead to a lower-key event.   Some observers believe these no-shows reflect a desire to avoid aggravating U.S. President Donald Trump, as he builds up a military presence off the shore of Venezuela, strikes boats he claims are carrying drug traffickers, and doubles down on his international tariff policy. Trump has had a stormy relationship with Petro, using tariffs against Colombia after the two have clashed politically.  Others argue that the uncertainty of the shifting world order is driving a reluctance to take bold stances. The imperative to co-operate The Summit of the Americas, which gathers Western Hemisphere leaders, was scheduled to take place in the Dominican Republic in early December. This week the meeting was postponed until 2026 following “a careful analysis of the situation in the region,” with the country’s foreign ministry citing “deep differences of opinion” and the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa. Presiding over the EU-CELAC summit are Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who currently holds CELAC’s rotating leadership, and European Council President António Costa.  The two blocs will aim to produce a joint political statement at the summit, as well as two separate statements about security and care work. “Colombia, as pro tempore president of the CELAC and host country, has made it a priority to consolidate a united Latin American and Caribbean voice in the face of great global challenges,” said Frank Godoy Casadiego, chargé d’affaires at the Colombian embassy in Argentina. He added that the focus is on three main topics: the energy, digital, and environmental transitions; food security; and education as a driver of integration and social justice.  A European official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the importance of  co-operation between the regions has become “imperative.” “The challenges have grown, and at the same time, other major actors are reducing cooperation, weaponizing dependencies, or engaging in predatory trade practices,” he said. Absent friends Earlier this week the Financial Times reported that European leaders including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will not attend the summit.  On the Latin American side, a Casa Rosada source confirmed to the Herald that Argentine President Javier Milei will not attend. On Thursday, he spoke at a business forum in Miami that was also attended by Trump. From the U.S. he traveled to Bolivia for President-elect Rodrigo Paz Pereira’s inauguration on Saturday. Presidents Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico and Gabriel Boric of Chile won’t be going to Santa Marta, either.  “Every country makes a sovereign decision on its participation, and CELAC is characterized by its plural spirit and commitment to consensus,” Godoy Casadiego said, noting that Colombia trusts that any agreements and commitments reached during the summit reflect “the collective interests of Latin America and the Caribbean, beyond national political situations.”  Brazilian President Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, whose participation had been in doubt, confirmed on Tuesday through his foreign minister that he would make it to Santa Marta. The event is taking place at the same time as the COP30 climate summit in neighboring Brazil. The overlap has raised questions about whether the events will compete for leaders’ attention. Julieta Zelicovich, International Relations Professor at the National University of Rosario, said that an uncertain geopolitical panorama could be playing into leaders’ reticence as much as a fear of irritating Trump. “We’ve seen leaders from both Europe and Latin America taking diplomatic positions in some situations — on Palestine, for example — that are far more confrontational towards Trump, so I think this ‘chilling effect’ is more of an excuse.”  She went on to argue that two factors had put a dampener on this summit: a desire to avoid taking strong positions in the face of a shifting world order, and the fact that in times of inter-regional polarization, it is harder for leaders to find common ground, making summits less appealing. “Although both regions are facing global problems whose best response would be solutions coordinated bi-regionally, the situation creates greater incentives for bilateral arrangements and avoiding these large platforms of summit diplomacy,” she said. CELAC and the OAS The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, more commonly referred to by its Spanish acronym, CELAC, consists of 33 countries in the region. It does not include the United States or Canada. It was created in 2011 in Caracas, Venezuela, and is seen as vying for influence with the Organization of American States, which does include Washington and Ottawa. During the last EU-CELAC summit, which was held in Brussels in July 2023, the leaders of the two blocs committed to holding a summit every two years. Milei has shunned CELAC in the past. In April, the Argentine leader did not attend its summit in Honduras, choosing instead to meet with Paraguayan President Santiago Peña at the same time. However, the event has also had diplomatic significance for Argentina. At the end of the July 2023 summit in Brussels, the closing statement issued by the blocs acknowledged the dispute between Argentina and the United Kingdom over the Malvinas Islands. It was the first time the EU had included the dispute in a closing declaration at an international forum.