Industry posts first annual rise in eight months, but recovery remains uneven

Argentinas industrial sector returned to growth in March, snapping an eight-month streak of year-on-year declines, according to private consultancy Orlando J. Ferreres & Asociados. However, Ferreres analysts urged caution over reading too much into a single months improvement.  The Industrial Production Index showed factory output rising 0.7% from March last year, while seasonally adjusted activity increased 0.8% from February, reversing the previous months 3.1% drop.  The rebound offers tentative signs of stabilisation, though the broader picture remains fragile. Industrial output in the first quarter was still down 3.1% compared with the same period last year, and 0.4% below the final quarter of 2025. The strongest performance came from non-metallic minerals, a category closely linked to construction, which rose 7.3% annually, driven by an 11% increase in cement shipments, a growth linked to the reactivation of public works. This helped the sector recover after four straight months of contraction.  Food, beverages and tobacco also expanded, posting a 2% annual increase. Edible oil production was a key driver, rising 5.2%, while cattle slaughter continued to fall, though at a slower pace than earlier in the year.  Machinery and equipment remained in negative territory, shrinking 5.3% year-on-year. Still, the fall was less severe than in January and February, when declines had exceeded 20%. Within the category, the automotive industry edged up 0.4%, ending four consecutive months of steep losses close to 30%.  Basic metals output dropped 2% in March, although crude steel production stood out with a 17.1% increase.  Is the worst over? Despite the improvements in March, Ferreres analysts warned about being overly optimistic about the future. They pointed to slowing growth in Brazil Argentinas main industrial trading partner as a potential headwind, while domestic construction activity remains below historical averages and household incomes have yet to recover enough to drive a strong rebound in consumption.  For President Javier Mileis government, the figures provide welcome evidence that activity may be bottoming out. But with demand still weak and the recovery concentrated in only a handful of sectors, industry remains far from a full-fledged comeback. With information from mbito